The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is leading to noticeable changes in the international transport environment. The air freight market in particular is affected, as key air corridors and hub operations are currently disrupted.
Current Impact of the Situation in the Middle East on Air and Sea Freight
The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is leading to noticeable changes in the international transport environment. The air freight market in particular is affected, as key air corridors and hub operations are currently disrupted.
Impact on Air Freight - Airlines based in the Gulf region account for a significant share of global air freight capacity. In addition to serving regional traffic, they function as major global hubs for cargo movements between Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania and India, and destinations in Europe and the United States. Due to flight reductions, temporary suspensions of operations and the avoidance of certain airspaces, the global balance between supply and demand is currently shifting significantly. It is estimated that approximately 12–13% of worldwide air freight capacity is affected, including capacity reductions by airlines from the Gulf region. European airlines are also directly impacted. Airspace over Russia and Ukraine has already been avoided for some time. Should the Iranian airspace also become restricted or be bypassed, flight routes would need to be extended further. This would result in longer flight times, higher fuel consumption and an overall reduction in available cargo capacity.
At present, we expect the following effects:
- Reduced available cargo and passenger capacity
- Limited connection options for shipments traditionally routed via the Gulf region
- Increased pressure on direct services and European hubs
- Longer transit times, particularly for shipments originating from India and Southeast Asia
For shipments to Europe, we currently anticipate the following delays:
- Express shipments: approx. +2 days
- Consolidated shipments: approx. +4 days
Impact on Sea Freight - Shipping lines are also reporting indirect disruptions and rising costs linked to the situation in the Middle East. For some time now, many vessels have been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope instead of transiting the Suez Canal. For sea freight shipments currently in transit, we have no negative information at this time.
However, depending on further developments in and around Iran, it is expected that:
- Container freight rates may increase
- Additional surcharges may be introduced (e.g. war risk insurance, higher terminal costs)
Planning Advisory - We recommend taking these developments into account when planning your transport and logistics operations. Our import team monitors all ongoing shipments on a daily basis and will proactively inform you of relevant status updates whenever possible. Should you have any questions, we remain at your disposal at all times.